Poll: Pennsylvanians prefer program cuts to tax hike
Published: June 25, 2009
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Fewer than a third of Pennsylvania adults think raising taxes is a good way to balance the state budget, while more than four in 10 prefer cutting programs and services, a new Franklin & Marshall College poll co-sponsored by Times-Shamrock Newspapers shows.
The poll also shows, for the first time, Pennsylvanians favoring a state law to allow civil unions for gay couples and allowing them some of the same rights as heterosexuals.
Only 29 percent of 580 people surveyed at random said the state General Assembly should hike taxes to overcome a projected $3.2 billion budget, deficit while 44 percent say they prefer the spending cuts, according to the poll.
The figures are likely to buttress the argument of Republicans in the state General Assembly who oppose Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell's push for a 16 percent increase in the state income tax.
"People don't want their taxes raised," said Steve Miskin, a spokesman for House Republicans. "They agree with our contention that it's a spending problem, not a revenue problem as the governor continues to insist."
Chuck Ardo, a spokesman for Mr. Rendell, said the governor doesn't live by polls and rather "believes in doing the right thing on behalf of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, both in the short term and long term."
"I wonder how many of the 44 percent would continue to support service cuts if they knew those service cuts included 800 fewer state troopers as well as eliminated subsidy (increases) available to school districts, which could result in higher property taxes," Mr. Ardo said.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. Its other sponsors are the Philadelphia Daily News, WGAL-TV in Lancaster, the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, WTAE-TV in Pittsburgh and WPVI-TV in Philadelphia.
G. Terry Madonna, Ph.D., the poll's director, said the recession is contributing to voter sentiment, though he acknowledged voters rarely say they like tax hikes.
"In a recession, voters just typically don't want to pay more in taxes, and many of them anticipate service or program cuts won't affect them personally," Dr. Madonna said.
He said the discussions in Washington about the nation's burgeoning deficit and the cost of proposed health care reform are probably playing into the sentiment. Residents also don't understand how the state could be receiving as much as $18 billion in federal stimulus money and not balancing its budget.
The stimulus money has been allocated for projects other than budget balancing.
The poll also showed the percentage of Pennsylvanians who believe the state is headed in the right direction declined from 48 percent in March to 44 percent while the percentage who think it's on the wrong track rose from 41 percent to 48 percent. Forty-three percent of Pennsylvanians said they are worse off financially from a year ago compared to 36 percent who said that in March.
The malaise is affecting Mr. Rendell's job-approval rating. Only 38 percent of those surveyed said he's doing an excellent or good job - down from 42 percent in February - compared to 59 percent who said he's doing a fair or poor job - up from 54 percent in February. The number of people who think he's doing a poor job is way up - 17 to 25 percent. And the gap between his favorability and unfavorability ratings has narrowed from 10 to 2 percentage points.
The General Assembly rates even worse, with 27 percent thinking it's doing an excellent or good job and 67 percent saying a fair or poor job.
The poll also showed:
- A sharp decline in U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter's job approval rating, from 52 percent to 34 percent.
Not surprisingly, his switch from Republican to Democrat cost him a lot of Republican support. Republican approval dropped 31 points. But Mr. Specter also dropped 11 points among Democrats and 3 points among independents. The percentage who say he deserves re-election dropped from 40 to 28 percent. And the percentage of people with a favorable view of him (31 percent) is well below those who have an unfavorable view (37 percent).
"They look at it (the switch) as a political move, and he's got a lot of work to do to convince them it was not just about him, it's about what he can do for the state," Dr. Madonna said.
The good news for Mr. Specter is he still has a large edge over his likely opponent for the Democratic nomination next year, U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak, a suburban Philadelphia congressman.
Mr. Specter had the support of 33 percent compared to 13 percent for Mr. Sestak in a poll of 258 Democrats that had a margin of error of plus or minus 6.1 percentage points. But the additional bad news is 48 percent, or almost half, don't know how they would vote, an ominous number for a longtime incumbent.
- Almost six in 10 people (58 percent) strongly or somewhat favor a law allowing civil unions for gay couples and giving them some of the same rights as heterosexuals.
That's way up from slightly more than four in 10 (42 percent) in February 2004. Opposition to such a law declined from 50 percent to 37 percent.
But a majority of Pennsylvanians still oppose marriage for gay couples. Almost half (48 percent) are in favor of a state constitutional amendment to define marriage as being between a man and a woman while slightly fewer (46 percent) oppose an amendment. Only 42 percent are in favor of amending the constitution to allow gay marriage while 52 percent are against.
- The percentage of people who think abortion should be legal under any circumstances declined slightly since August 2007 - 22 percent to 18 percent; the percentage who think it should be legal under certain circumstances rose from 56 percent to 58 percent in the same period; the percentage who think it should always be illegal rose from 21 percent to 22 percent.
Contact the writer: bkrawczeniuk@timesshamrock.com
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